Coffee with Crawford: My Associated Press Preseason Men's Basketball Top 25 Ballot
Louisville, Kentucky (WDRB) - I've been nervous about this day for a while. It's my first Associated Press Top 25 ballot, and I know I'll be scrutinized for any mistakes. We're ranking teams we know very little about, and that's the whole point. It's about predicting their potential now, not their performance in March.
But the uncertainty is overwhelming. How will transfer players fit in? Who will suddenly become a national sensation? Can Florida defend its title? Will Houston or Purdue make a run for the Final Four?
Last year, no one knew the answers either. I find some comfort in that.
Only three teams in the 2024 preseason Top 10 made it to the end of the year in the same spot. Of the 14 teams that appeared in both polls, the average ranking discrepancy was 7.5 spots. Florida, the eventual national champion, started the season ranked 21st.
Kansas, UConn, Baylor, and North Carolina all began in the Top 10 but finished unranked. Teams that finished 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, and 11th started the season unranked.
You get the idea.
For my first poll, I relied on a mix of consensus, intuition, and data from Bart Torvik's ratings, which I highly respect. I prioritized teams with more returning players, especially for this early-season assessment. But in the end, any blunders are my responsibility.
Here's my ballot:
- Houston: With three starters returning from a team that came so close to a national championship, Houston has a strong chance to make it to Indianapolis for another Final Four. Their returning core positions them well for a tough opening game.
- Purdue: Another team with a strong returning lineup and an excellent coach. If they were coming off a Final Four season, they'd likely be ranked higher. But they're not. Still, the prospect of Purdue reaching the Final Four in Indy will be a significant motivator in West Lafayette throughout the season.
- Florida: Last year's champions are a legitimate contender to repeat, largely due to Boogie Fland's decision to join the team. Princeton transfer Xavian Lee and big man Alex Condon add excitement and depth.
- UConn: The Huskies return three starters, add Georgia transfer Silas Demary, and Danny Hurley aims to strengthen their defense.
- Duke: Despite having no returning starters, Duke's inclusion is driven by the return of Caleb Foster and Isaiah Evans, along with the addition of Maliq Brown from Syracuse. Freshmen like Cameron Boozer and his brother Cayden, as well as Dame Sarr and Sebastian Wilkins, also contribute significantly.
- St. John's: Rick Pitino's only returning starter, Zuby Ejiofor, is a strong player. He quickly rebuilt through the portal, adding Bryce Hopkins, Joson Sonon, and Oziyah Sellers. With five international players and no true point guard, he still has our trust.
- Michigan: Dusty May's team is deep, returning two starters from last season's Sweet 16 squad, plus Elliott Caeau and Yaxel Lendeborg, a top-ranked transfer.
- BYU: Kevin Young's impressive 26 wins last season were the most for a first-year coach in school history. With the addition of top-ranked recruit AJ Dybantsa, he could achieve even more this season.
- Kentucky: Mark Pope has Otega Oweh back and a deep roster. He added Denzel Aberdeen from Florida, Mo Dioubate from Alabama, and Jaland Lowe from Pittsburgh. Brandon Garrison will start, but Jayden Quaintance's return to full health will be a game-changer.
- Louisville: Pat Kelsey's team had some injury setbacks, but Year 2 will be no less challenging. He adds shooting with transfers Adrian Wooley, Isaac McKneely, and Ryan Conwell, along with top freshman Mikel Brown. J’Vonne Hadley and Kasean Pryor return, with Ali Khalifa joining after a redshirt season.
- UCLA: The addition of New Mexico point guard Donovan Dent should propel Mick Cronin's team in Westwood.
- Texas Tech: Grant McCasland is a skilled coach, and JT Toppin is an All-American, placing him in the Top 15.
- Alabama: I might have the Crimson Tide a bit too low, especially if this is Nate Oats' best-shooting team.
- Arizona: Tommy Lloyd has three starters back and a high-scoring freshman, Brayden Burries.
- Arkansas: John Calipari's team has depth, solid experience, and his usual strong recruiting.
- Iowa State: A typically good-shooting, tough defensive team under T.J. Otzelberger, with four starters from last season.
- Tennessee: I expect Tennessee to finish higher, but early adjustments with new players, including Ja’Kobi Gillespie from Maryland, may take time. Freshman Nate Ament will be a force by season's end.
- Illinois: This team has a unique starting lineup with consonants galore. Four starters with names ending in 'c' is impressive.
- Kansas: Bill Self has no returning starters but the nation's second-ranked recruit, Darryn Peterson. He also has Tre White, a former Louisville player, as a projected starter.
- Gonzaga: Mark Few returns just one starter but has some older transfers, like Tyon Grant-Foster and Graham Ike.
- Auburn: I love the War Eagles' roster and Tahaad Pettiford, but the departure of Bruce Pearl is a concern. They can recover and climb back up.
- Wisconsin: Greg Gard's team averaged over 80 points last season, but Kamari McGee's return suggests more of the same.
- Creighton: Greg McDermott has a few starters back from a team that beat Louisville last season. He adds high-scoring Nik Graves, and transfers Josh Dix and Elliott Caeau contribute significantly.
- Michigan State: Tom Izzo's team might be a risky pick, but with some talented portal additions and solid freshmen, they'll be near the top in the Big Ten.
- North Carolina: Hubert Davis faces a pivotal year in Chapel Hill. With size and the potential impact of 6-10 freshman Caleb Wilson, early contributions are crucial.
Quick Sips
HOOSIER POWER: Indiana is a top college football team. Check out my column on their upset win over Oregon (https://www.wdrb.com/sports/).
BUSY MONDAY: Jeff Brohm discusses Louisville's ACC matchup with Miami. Mark Stoops prepares for a press conference after an uneasy bye week against Texas. Jeff Walz speaks at the women's basketball luncheon. The AP men's basketball poll is released at 2 p.m.
The Last Drop
'Last year, I was intense because I thought I needed to take over the program. I knew that in December. I thought we established credibility, but I didn't need to be that way. I could focus on coaching the team.'
